Storm Watch...

Thunderheads after Hurricane Ike, 

September 15, 2008

  Tropical Storm Isaac.  He won't be so for long.  If the models are right, he'll leave his tour of the northern Cuban coastline, head out into the Gulf and put on a little "weight", in the form of higher winds.  

  By the time he reaches a level latitude with Tampa, he'll be a strong Category 1, heading north.  I am glad he will be offshore.  But it brings back memories of another storm we watched approach along a similar track.  

  Hurricane Charlie.  

  In 2004, we watched Hurricane Charlie approach the bay area.  He crossed Cuba as a category 1 storm and was predicted to run straight north into Tampa Bay.  While a Category 1 storm is nothing to take lightly, it was not too concerning for us.  In the day before he crossed into the Gulf, we made our preparations.  He was not predicted to get much stronger.  We made ice, put away the outside items and covered the windows in a hurricane film that was supposed to keep the windows from breaking completely out if something struck them.  

  We got up on the morning of Aug 13th confident we were ready.  Little did we know what mother nature had in store for us and Charlie that day.

  Charlie turned out to be an unpredictable storm.  What's more, he exhibited a behavior that scientists at the National Hurricane Center still struggle to explain.  Explosive intensification.  In 48 hours Charlie, a weak Category 1, became a monstrous Category 4 headed straight for Tampa.  We were anything but prepared for what was headed our way.  In the end it was only that same unpredictable nature of Charlie that save our skins when he took a turn to the right and made landfall well south of us.  He made landfall within the predicted zone of impact, the infamous cone of uncertainty.  He is the poster child for why you should not focus on the center line and prepare no matter where you are in the cone.   I would expand that to areas near the cone as well.  Models aren't perfect. 

  So now as we sit, watching Isaac work his way though the Caribbean, and across Cuba, my mind wanders back to Charlie.  In hindsight, we were woefully unprepared for what Charlie would have brought to our area.  Our paltry preparations would have not stood much of a chance again the winds Charlie brought ashore.  We got lucky.  

  All the models predict Isaac will continue on his path north.  We are barely out of the track's cone.  But that doesn't mean I'll let my guard down.  I won't relax until he's at least even with Tampa on his trip north.  And even then the story is not over.  Isaac is taking aim on Atlanta, and DragonCon, where we'll spend Labor Day weekend. 

 It seems that we are destined to be under Isaac's influence, not once but twice.